Here we are, post-Globes, pre-nominations, and with infinitely more knowledge than we held in November.
The predictions I made in November don’t look bad, especially considering I’d seen only a few of what were to become this season’s contenders. There’s still a lot to learn regarding who will win, but I do want to continue my exercise in intuition by making an updated set of picks before nominations come out tomorrow.
For the purposes of this post, I'll just be writing my projected nominees, alternates, and a short description of what's different between my current nom projections and those from November. I'm saving all my political commentary and reasoning for a post next month before the big show.
To add some intrigue, I'll say if I'm sticking with the winner I picked in November.
Best Picture
The Irishman
Parasite
Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
Joker
The Two Popes
Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Alternate selections: The Farewell, Knives Out, Bombshell, A Hidden Life
November winner: The Two Popes
What’s Changed: I moved Bombshell down to the alternates list, where I also added Knives Out. I removed Waves and Richard Jewell from the alternates list.
Best Director
Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood)
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Alternate Selection: Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Todd Phillips (joker)
November winner: Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood)
What's Changed: I swapped Fernando Meirelles' (The Two Popes) and Sam Mendes' (1917) spots on the nominees and alternates lists. I removed Greta Gerwig (Little Women) from the alternates list. (As an aside, I was so right in November about Little Women being snubbed across the board.)
Best Actress
Renée Zellweger (Judy)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Lupita Nyong'o (Us)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
November winner: Renée Zellweger (Judy)
Alternate Selections: Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Awkwafina (The Farewell), Alfre Woodard (Clemency)
What’s Changed: I added Lupita Nyong'o to the nominees list for Us and bumped Alfre Woodard (Clemency) down to the alternates list. I maintain that Renée Zellweger will win for her role as Judy Garland in Judy.
Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood)
Alternate Selection: Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy), Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
November winner: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
What’s Changed: I swapped Leonardo DiCaprio's and Robert De Niro's spots on the nominees and alternatives lists. I removed Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems) and Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) from the alternates list and added Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory). I maintain that Joaquin Phoenix will win for his role as Arthur Fleck in Joker.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansen (Jojo Rabbit)
Shuzhen Zhou (The Farewell)
Alternate Selection: Anette Bening (The Report), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell), Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
November winner: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
What's Changed: I removed Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) and Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Dolemite Is My Name) from the alternates list and added Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell). I maintain Laura Dern will win for her role as Nora Fanshaw in Marriage Story.
Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt (Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Alternate Selection: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)
November winner: Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
What’s Changed: I removed John Lithgow (Bombshell) from the alternates list.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
The Two Popes
Alternate Selections: Hustlers, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Just Mercy
November winner: The Irishman
What's Changed: I removed Richard Jewell from the nominees list and bumped Joker up from the alternates list. I maintain The Irishman will win.
Best Original Screenplay
Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
Marriage Story
Parasite
1917
Knives Out
Alternate Selections: The Farewell, Ford v Ferrari, Honey Boy, Booksmart
November winner: Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
What's Changed: I removed Bombshell from the nominees list and added Knives Out. I removed Waves from the alternates list and added Booksmart. I swapped Ford v Ferrari and 1917's spots. I maintain Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood will win.
Best Animated Feature
Toy Story 4
Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Klaus
I Lost My Body
Alternate Selection: Missing Link, Abominable
November winner: Toy Story 4
What's Changed: I removed Weathering with You from the nominees list and bumped up Klaus from the alternates list. I added Missing Link to the alternates list. I maintain Toy Story 4 will win.
Best Documentary
One Child Nation
American Factory
Apollo 11
For Sama
Honeyland
Alternate Selections: The Biggest Little Farm, The Kingmaker, Maiden, The Cave
November winner: One Child Nation
What's Changed: I moved The Kingmaker and The Biggest Little Farm down to the alternates list and added For Sama and Honeyland to the nominees list. I removed Knock Down the House and Diego Maradona from the alternates list.
Best Foreign Language Film
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Les Miserables (France)
Atlantics (Senegal)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Alternate Selections: Tel Aviv on Fire (Luxembourg), The Painted Bird (Czech Republic), Truth and Justice (Estonia)
November winner: Parasite
What's Changed: I bumped Invisible Life (Brazil) down to the alternates list and removed A White, White Day (Iceland) from the nominees list. I added Atlantics (Senegal) to the nominees list and bumped Corpus Christi (Poland) up. I removed Instinct (Netherlands) and The Traitor (Italy) from the alternates list and added The Painted Bird (Czech Republic) and Truth and Justice (Estonia). I maintain Parasite will win.
Best Cinematography
1917
Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
The Lighthouse
Joker
The Irishman
Alternate Selections: Ad Astra, The Two Popes, Ford v Ferrari, A Hidden Life
November winner: 1917
What's Changed: I bumped The Two Popes and A Hidden Life down to the alternates list, where I also added Ford v Ferrari. I moved The Lighthouse and Joker up to the nominees list. I maintain 1917 will win.
Best Film Editing
Marriage Story
Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
The Irishman
Ford v Ferrari
Knives Out
Alternate Selections: Booksmart, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, Parasite
November winner: Ford v Ferrari
What's Changed: I swapped 1917 and Marriage Story's spots on the nominees/alternates lists. I removed Waves from the alternates list and added Parasite. I maintain Ford v Ferrari will win.
Best Production Design
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
Parasite
Joker
Alternate Selections: The Irishman, The Two Popes, Little Women, Knives Out
November winner: Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
What's Changed: I added Parasite to the nominees list and moved The Irishman down to the alternates. I also bumped 1917 up to the nominees list, swapping places with Little Women. I added Knives Out to the alternates list and removed Downton Abbey.
Best Costume Design
Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
Downton Abbey
Rocketman
Dolemite Is My Name
Hustlers
Alternate Selections: The Irishman, Joker, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit
November winner: Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
What's Changed: I moved Joker and Little Women down to the alternates list and bumped up Dolemite Is My Name. I added Hustlers to the nominees list and replaced Maleficent: Mistress of Evil with Jojo Rabbit on the alternates list. I maintain that Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood will win.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Judy
Rocketman
Joker
Bombshell
Alternate Selections: Downton Abbey, Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood
November winner: Judy
What's Changed: I moved Bombshell up off of the nominees list (why I didn't have that up there before, I couldn't tell you).
Best Visual Effects
Gemini Man
The Aeronauts
Avengers: End Game
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Lion King
Alternate Selections: Ad Astra, 1917, The Irishman
November winner: The Lion King
What's Changed: I removed Cats from the nominees list, obviously. I bumped The Aeronauts up from the alternates list and removed The Lighthouse. I added 1917 and The Irishman to the alternates list. I maintain that The Lion King will win.
Best Sound Editing
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Joker
Rocketman
Alternate Selections: Ad Astra, The Irishman, Avengers: Endgame
November winner: 1917
What's Changed: I swapped The Irishman and Joker's spots. I removed Judy from the alternates list and added Avengers: Endgame. I maintain 1917 will win.
Best Sound Mixing
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Rocketman
Joker
Alternate Selections: The Irishman, Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood, Avengers: Endgame
November winner: Ford v Ferrari
What's Changed: I removed Ad Astra from the nominees list and bumped Joker up from the alternates. I added Avengers: Endgame to the alternates list. I maintain Ford v Ferrari will win.
Best Original Score
1917
Joker
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Marriage Story
Little Women
Alternate Selections: Waves, Ford v Ferrari, Motherless Brooklyn
November winner: Joker
What's Changed: I removed Harriet and Judy from the nominees list and bumped up 1917. I added Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker to the nominees list. I maintain Joker will win.
Best Original Song
"Stand Up" (Harriet)
"Spirit" (The Lion King)
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman)
"Into the Unknown" (Frozen II)
"Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" (Wild Rose)
Alternate Selections: "Daily Battles" (Motherless Brooklyn), "I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough), "Letter to My Godfather" (The Black Godfather)
November winner: "Stand Up" (Harriet)
What's Changed: I removed "Beautiful Ghosts" (Cats) from the nominees list and "Never Too Late" (The Lion King), "The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy" (Toy Story 4), and "Don't Call Me (Angel)" (Charlie's Angels) from the alternates list. I added "Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" (Wild Rose) to the nominees list and "Daily Battles" (Motherless Brooklyn), "I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough), and "Letter to My Godfather" (The Black Godfather) to the alternates list. I maintain that "Stand Up" (Harriet) will win.
~NEW~
No commentary, just projections and alternates.
Best Animated Short
Hair Love
Kitbull
Mind My Mind
He Can't Live Without Cosmos
The Physics of Sorrow
Alternate Selections: Sister, Dcera (Daughter), Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days
Winner: Hair Love
Best Documentary Short
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
Fire in Paradise
After Maria
Stay Close
St. Louis Superman
Alternate Selections: Walk Run Cha-Cha, The Nightcrawlers, Life Overtakes Me
Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
Best Live Action Short
Brotherhood
The Neighbors' Window
Little Hands
Refugee
A Sister
Alternate Selections: Miller and Son, Nefta Football Club, The Christmas Gift
Winner: Refugee
We'll see what happens tomorrow morning!