• Casey Seline

Last Minute Oscars 2020 Projections

Here we are, post-Globes, pre-nominations, and with infinitely more knowledge than we held in November.


 

The predictions I made in November don’t look bad, especially considering I’d seen only a few of what were to become this season’s contenders. There’s still a lot to learn regarding who will win, but I do want to continue my exercise in intuition by making an updated set of picks before nominations come out tomorrow.

For the purposes of this post, I'll just be writing my projected nominees, alternates, and a short description of what's different between my current nom projections and those from November. I'm saving all my political commentary and reasoning for a post next month before the big show.

To add some intrigue, I'll say if I'm sticking with the winner I picked in November.

Best Picture

The Irishman

Parasite

Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood

Joker

The Two Popes

Marriage Story

Ford v Ferrari

Jojo Rabbit

1917


Alternate selections: The Farewell, Knives Out, Bombshell, A Hidden Life


November winner: The Two Popes

What’s Changed: I moved Bombshell down to the alternates list, where I also added Knives Out. I removed Waves and Richard Jewell from the alternates list.


Best Director

Bong Joon-ho (Parasite)

Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)

Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood)

Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)

Sam Mendes (1917)


Alternate Selection: Fernando Meirelles (The Two Popes), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Todd Phillips (joker)


November winner: Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood)

What's Changed: I swapped Fernando Meirelles' (The Two Popes) and Sam Mendes' (1917) spots on the nominees and alternates lists. I removed Greta Gerwig (Little Women) from the alternates list. (As an aside, I was so right in November about Little Women being snubbed across the board.)



Best Actress

Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)

Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)

Lupita Nyong'o (Us)

Charlize Theron (Bombshell)


November winner: Renée Zellweger (Judy)

Alternate Selections: Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Awkwafina (The Farewell), Alfre Woodard (Clemency)

What’s Changed: I added Lupita Nyong'o to the nominees list for Us and bumped Alfre Woodard (Clemency) down to the alternates list. I maintain that Renée Zellweger will win for her role as Judy Garland in Judy.



Best Actor

Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Adam Driver (Marriage Story)

Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name)

Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)

Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood)

Alternate Selection: Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Michael B. Jordan (Just Mercy), Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)


November winner: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

What’s Changed: I swapped Leonardo DiCaprio's and Robert De Niro's spots on the nominees and alternatives lists. I removed Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems) and Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) from the alternates list and added Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory). I maintain that Joaquin Phoenix will win for his role as Arthur Fleck in Joker.

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)

Margot Robbie (Bombshell)

Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

Scarlett Johansen (Jojo Rabbit)

Shuzhen Zhou (The Farewell)

Alternate Selection: Anette Bening (The Report), Nicole Kidman (Bombshell), Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)


November winner: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

What's Changed: I removed Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey) and Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Dolemite Is My Name) from the alternates list and added Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell). I maintain Laura Dern will win for her role as Nora Fanshaw in Marriage Story.



Best Supporting Actor

Brad Pitt (Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood)

Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

Jamie Foxx (Just Mercy)

Al Pacino (The Irishman)

Joe Pesci (The Irishman)

Alternate Selection: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy)


November winner: Joe Pesci (The Irishman)

What’s Changed: I removed John Lithgow (Bombshell) from the alternates list.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman

Joker

Jojo Rabbit

Little Women

The Two Popes

Alternate Selections: Hustlers, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Just Mercy


November winner: The Irishman

What's Changed: I removed Richard Jewell from the nominees list and bumped Joker up from the alternates list. I maintain The Irishman will win.

Best Original Screenplay

Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood

Marriage Story

Parasite

1917

Knives Out

Alternate Selections: The Farewell, Ford v Ferrari, Honey Boy, Booksmart


November winner: Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood

What's Changed: I removed Bombshell from the nominees list and added Knives Out. I removed Waves from the alternates list and added Booksmart. I swapped Ford v Ferrari and 1917's spots. I maintain Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood will win.



Best Animated Feature

Toy Story 4

Frozen II

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Klaus

I Lost My Body

Alternate Selection: Missing Link, Abominable


November winner: Toy Story 4

What's Changed: I removed Weathering with You from the nominees list and bumped up Klaus from the alternates list. I added Missing Link to the alternates list. I maintain Toy Story 4 will win.

Best Documentary

One Child Nation

American Factory

Apollo 11

For Sama

Honeyland

Alternate Selections: The Biggest Little Farm, The Kingmaker, Maiden, The Cave


November winner: One Child Nation

What's Changed: I moved The Kingmaker and The Biggest Little Farm down to the alternates list and added For Sama and Honeyland to the nominees list. I removed Knock Down the House and Diego Maradona from the alternates list.

Best Foreign Language Film

Parasite (South Korea)

Pain and Glory (Spain)

Les Miserables (France)

Atlantics (Senegal)

Corpus Christi (Poland)

Alternate Selections: Tel Aviv on Fire (Luxembourg), The Painted Bird (Czech Republic), Truth and Justice (Estonia)


November winner: Parasite

What's Changed: I bumped Invisible Life (Brazil) down to the alternates list and removed A White, White Day (Iceland) from the nominees list. I added Atlantics (Senegal) to the nominees list and bumped Corpus Christi (Poland) up. I removed Instinct (Netherlands) and The Traitor (Italy) from the alternates list and added The Painted Bird (Czech Republic) and Truth and Justice (Estonia). I maintain Parasite will win.


Best Cinematography

1917

Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood

The Lighthouse

Joker

The Irishman

Alternate Selections: Ad Astra, The Two Popes, Ford v Ferrari, A Hidden Life


November winner: 1917

What's Changed: I bumped The Two Popes and A Hidden Life down to the alternates list, where I also added Ford v Ferrari. I moved The Lighthouse and Joker up to the nominees list. I maintain 1917 will win.


Best Film Editing

Marriage Story

Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood

The Irishman

Ford v Ferrari

Knives Out

Alternate Selections: Booksmart, Jojo Rabbit, 1917, Parasite


November winner: Ford v Ferrari

What's Changed: I swapped 1917 and Marriage Story's spots on the nominees/alternates lists. I removed Waves from the alternates list and added Parasite. I maintain Ford v Ferrari will win.



Best Production Design

Jojo Rabbit

1917

Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood

Parasite

Joker

Alternate Selections: The Irishman, The Two Popes, Little Women, Knives Out


November winner: Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood

What's Changed: I added Parasite to the nominees list and moved The Irishman down to the alternates. I also bumped 1917 up to the nominees list, swapping places with Little Women. I added Knives Out to the alternates list and removed Downton Abbey.


Best Costume Design

Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood

Downton Abbey

Rocketman

Dolemite Is My Name

Hustlers

Alternate Selections: The Irishman, Joker, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit


November winner: Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood

What's Changed: I moved Joker and Little Women down to the alternates list and bumped up Dolemite Is My Name. I added Hustlers to the nominees list and replaced Maleficent: Mistress of Evil with Jojo Rabbit on the alternates list. I maintain that Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood will win.


Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Judy

Rocketman

Joker

Bombshell

Alternate Selections: Downton Abbey, Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood


November winner: Judy

What's Changed: I moved Bombshell up off of the nominees list (why I didn't have that up there before, I couldn't tell you).

Best Visual Effects

Gemini Man

The Aeronauts

Avengers: End Game

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

The Lion King

Alternate Selections: Ad Astra, 1917, The Irishman


November winner: The Lion King

What's Changed: I removed Cats from the nominees list, obviously. I bumped The Aeronauts up from the alternates list and removed The Lighthouse. I added 1917 and The Irishman to the alternates list. I maintain that The Lion King will win.



Best Sound Editing

1917

Ford v Ferrari

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Joker

Rocketman

Alternate Selections: Ad Astra, The Irishman, Avengers: Endgame


November winner: 1917

What's Changed: I swapped The Irishman and Joker's spots. I removed Judy from the alternates list and added Avengers: Endgame. I maintain 1917 will win.

Best Sound Mixing

1917

Ford v Ferrari

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Rocketman

Joker

Alternate Selections: The Irishman, Once Upon A Time... in Hollywood, Avengers: Endgame


November winner: Ford v Ferrari

What's Changed: I removed Ad Astra from the nominees list and bumped Joker up from the alternates. I added Avengers: Endgame to the alternates list. I maintain Ford v Ferrari will win.

Best Original Score

1917

Joker

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Marriage Story

Little Women

Alternate Selections: Waves, Ford v Ferrari, Motherless Brooklyn


November winner: Joker

What's Changed: I removed Harriet and Judy from the nominees list and bumped up 1917. I added Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker to the nominees list. I maintain Joker will win.

Best Original Song

"Stand Up" (Harriet)

"Spirit" (The Lion King)

"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again" (Rocketman)

"Into the Unknown" (Frozen II)

"Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" (Wild Rose)

Alternate Selections: "Daily Battles" (Motherless Brooklyn), "I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough), "Letter to My Godfather" (The Black Godfather)


November winner: "Stand Up" (Harriet)

What's Changed: I removed "Beautiful Ghosts" (Cats) from the nominees list and "Never Too Late" (The Lion King), "The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy" (Toy Story 4), and "Don't Call Me (Angel)" (Charlie's Angels) from the alternates list. I added "Glasgow (No Place Like Home)" (Wild Rose) to the nominees list and "Daily Battles" (Motherless Brooklyn), "I'm Standing With You" (Breakthrough), and "Letter to My Godfather" (The Black Godfather) to the alternates list. I maintain that "Stand Up" (Harriet) will win.

~NEW~

No commentary, just projections and alternates.

Best Animated Short

Hair Love

Kitbull

Mind My Mind

He Can't Live Without Cosmos

The Physics of Sorrow

Alternate Selections: Sister, Dcera (Daughter), Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days


Winner: Hair Love


Best Documentary Short

Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone

Fire in Paradise

After Maria

Stay Close

St. Louis Superman

Alternate Selections: Walk Run Cha-Cha, The Nightcrawlers, Life Overtakes Me


Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone


Best Live Action Short

Brotherhood

The Neighbors' Window

Little Hands

Refugee

A Sister

Alternate Selections: Miller and Son, Nefta Football Club, The Christmas Gift


Winner: Refugee


We'll see what happens tomorrow morning!