Last night's Oscars broadcast brought a solid mix of expected wins and surprises. Here's how my predictions stacked up from October, and from the day before the show. (My percentage is down from last year, unfortunately). Below that is my scoreboard for predicted nominees.
From "2019 Oscar Predictions," posted on October 23, 2018
Accuracy: 38%
Correct predictions: 8/21 (I left the three short categories out of this post)
The breakdown:
Best Picture
Predicted: Green Book
Actual: Green Book
Best Actor
Predicted: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Actual: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Best Actress
Predicted: Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Actual: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Actual: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted: Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Actual: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Best Director
Predicted: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Actual: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted: Ralph Breaks the Internet
Actual: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Documentary
Predicted: Won't You Be My Neighbor?
Actual: Free Solo
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted: Roma
Actual: Roma
Best Cinematography
Predicted: Roma
Actual: Roma
Best Production Design
Predicted: A Star Is Born
Actual: Black Panther
Best Costume Design
Predicted: Colette
Actual: Black Panther
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted: Mary Queen of Scots
Actual: Vice
Best Film Editing
Predicted: Roma
Actual: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Editing
Predicted: First Man
Actual: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted: First Man
Actual: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Original Score
Predicted: If Beale Street Could Talk
Actual: Black Panther
Best Original Song
Predicted: "Shallow" (A Star Is Born)
Actual: "Shallow" (A Star Is Born)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted: First Man
Actual: First Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted: If Beale Street Could Talk
Actual: BlacKkKlansman
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted: The Favourite
Actual: Green Book
From "Final Oscar 2019 Predictions," posted on February 23, 2019
Accuracy: 67%
Correct predictions: 16/24
The breakdown:
Best Picture
Predicted: The Favourite
Actual: Green Book
Best Actor
Predicted: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Actual: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Best Actress
Predicted: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Actual: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Actual: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Actual: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Best Director
Predicted: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Actual: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Actual: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Documentary
Predicted: Free Solo
Actual: Free Solo
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted: Roma
Actual: Roma
Best Cinematography
Predicted: Roma
Actual: Roma
Best Production Design
Predicted: Black Panther
Actual: Black Panther
Best Costume Design
Predicted: Black Panther
Actual: Black Panther
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted: Vice
Actual: Vice
Best Film Editing
Predicted: Vice
Actual: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Editing
Predicted: First Man
Actual: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted: First Man
Actual: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Original Score
Predicted: BlacKkKlansman
Actual: Black Panther
Best Original Song
Predicted: "Shallow" (A Star Is Born)
Actual: "Shallow" (A Star Is Born)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted: First Man
Actual: First Man
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted: BlacKkKlansman
Actual: BlacKkKlansman
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted: The Favourite
Actual: Green Book
Best Animated Short
Predicted: Bao
Actual: Bao
Best Documentary Short
Predicted: Black Sheep
Actual: Period. End of Sentence.
Best Live Action Short
Predicted: Skin
Actual: Skin
From January 23: I'll be updating this post when I have final Oscar predictions/when we know winners, but for now, here's how my predictions have stacked up. Asterisks indicate a correct prediction.
From "Last Minute Oscar Nom Projections," posted on January 21, 2019
Accuracy: 86.1%
Correct nominees: 89/122
Alternates who earned nominations: 16/43
Total misses: 15/122
Best Category: 3-way TIE between Best Animated Feature, Best Foreign Language Film, and Best Production Design (no misses, nothing off the alternates list)
Worst Category: Best Film Editing (2 correct nominees, 1 nominee from the alternates list, 2 misses)
The breakdown:
Best Picture
A Star Is Born*, Green Book*, The Favourite*, Black Panther*, Roma*, Vice*, Bohemian Rhapsody*, BlacKkKlansman*, If Beale Street Could Talk
Alternates: First Man, Eighth Grade
Missed: None
Best Actor
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)*, Christian Bale (Vice)*, Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)*, Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)*, Ethan Hawke
Alternates: Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)*
Missed: None
Best Actress
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)*, Glenn Close (The Wife)*, Olivia Colman (The Favourite)*, Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)*, Nicole Kidman (Destroyer)
Alternates: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)*, Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Missed: None
Best Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell (Vice)*, Mahershala Ali (Green Book)*, Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)*, Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)*, Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Alternates: Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)*
Missed: None
Best Supporting Actress
Emma Stone (The Favourite)*, Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)*, Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)*, Amy Adams (Vice)*, Claire Foy (First Man)
Alternates: Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
Missed: Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Best Director
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)*, Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)*, Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)*, Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Alternates: Adam McKay (Vice)*, Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Missed: Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2*, Isle of Dogs*, Ralph Breaks the Internet*, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse*, Mirai*
Alternates: The Grinch
Missed: None
Best Documentary
RBG*, Free Solo*, Minding the Gap*, Three Identical Strangers, Won't You Be My Neighbor?
Alternates: Hale County This Morning, This Evening*, Shirkers
Missed: Of Fathers and Sons
Best Foreign Language Film
Roma (Mexico)*, Shoplifters (Japan)*, Cold War (Poland)*, Capernaum (Lebanon)*, Never Look Away (Germany)*
Alternates: Border (Sweden), Burning (South Korea)
Missed: None
Best Cinematography
Roma*, Cold War*, The Favourite*, If Beale Street Could Talk, First Man
Alternates: A Star Is Born*, At Eternity's Gate
Missed: Never Look Away
Best Production Design
Black Panther*, The Favourite*, Roma*, First Man*, Mary Poppins Returns*
Alternates: A Star Is Born, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Missed: None
Best Costume Design
Mary Queen of Scots*, Mary Poppins Returns*, The Favourite*, Black Panther*, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Alternates: If Beale Street Could Talk
Missed: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mary Queen of Scots*, Vice*, Bohemian Rhapsody
Alternates: Stan & Ollie, The Favourite
Missed: Border
Best Film Editing
Vice*, Green Book*, A Star Is Born, Roma, First Man
Alternates: Bohemian Rhapsody*, Mission Impossible: Fallout
Missed: BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite
Best Sound Editing
First Man*, A Quiet Place*, Black Panther*, A Star Is Born, Mission Impossible: Fallout
Alternates: Roma*, Bohemian Rhapsody*, Ready Player One
Missed: None
Best Sound Mixing
First Man*, Bohemian Rhapsody* Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Mission Impossible: Fallout
Alternates: Roma*, Black Panther*
Missed: A Star Is Born
Best Original Score
If Beale Street Could Talk*, Mary Poppins Returns*, Isle of Dogs*, Black Panther*, First Man
Alternates: BlacKkKlansman*, A Quiet Place
Missed: None
Best Original Song
"Shallow" (A Star Is Born)*, "All the Stars" (Black Panther)*, "I'll Fight" (RBG)*, "Girl in the Movies" (Dumplin'), "Trip A Little Light Fantastic" (Mary Poppins Returns)
Alternates: "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns)*, "Revelation" (Boy Erased)
Missed: "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Best Visual Effects
First Man*, Avengers: Infinity War*, Ready Player One*, Solo: A Star Wars Story*, Mary Poppins Returns
Alternates: Black Panther
Missed: Christopher Robin
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Star Is Born*, If Beale Street Could Talk*, BlacKkKlansman*, Can You Ever Forgive Me?*, Black Panther
Alternates: First Man, Leave No Trace
Missed: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite*, Roma*, Green Book*, Vice*, Eighth Grade
Alternates: First Reformed*, A Quiet Place
Missed: None
Best Animated Short
Bao*, Weekends*, Animal Behaviour*, Bilby, Lost & Found
Alternates: One Small Step*, Age of Sail
Missed: Late Afternoon
Best Documentary Short
End Game*, Black Sheep*, Period. End of Sentence.*, Zion, Women of the Gulag
Alternates: My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes, '63 Boycott
Missed: Lifeboat, A Night at the Garden
Best Live Action Short
Detainment*, Marguerite*, Skin*, Icare, Caroline
Alternates: Favue*, Wale
Missed: Mother
From "2019 Oscar Predictions," posted on October 23, 2018
Accuracy: 64.8%
Correct nominees: 61/108
Alternates who earned nominations: 9/38
Total misses: 36/108
Best Category: Best Animated Feature (no misses, nothing off the alternates list)
Worst Category: TIE between Best Cinematography and Best Visual Effects (one correct nominee, one nominee from the alternate list)
The breakdown:
Best Picture
A Star Is Born*, Green Book*, The Favourite*, Black Panther*, Roma*, Vice*, If Beale Street Could Talk, On the Basis of Sex, The Front Runner, First Man
Alternates: Mary Queen of Scots, Boy Erased
Missed: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Actor
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)*, Christian Bale (Vice)*, Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)*, Ryan Gosling (First Man), Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)
Alternates: Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)*, Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun)
Missed: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Best Actress
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)*, Glenn Close (The Wife)*, Olivia Colman (The Favourite)*, Yalitz Aparicio (Roma)*, KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Alternates: Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex), Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)
Missed: Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Best Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell (Vice)*, Mahershala Ali (Green Book)*, Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)*, Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)*, Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Alternates: J.K. Simmons (The Front Runner), Steve Carell (Vice)
Missed: Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Best Supporting Actress
Emma Stone (The Favourite)*, Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)*, Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)*, Claire Foy (First Man), Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)
Alternates: Amy Adams (Vice)*, Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)
Missed: Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Best Director
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)*, Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)*, Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Damien Chazelle (First Man), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Alternates: Adam McKay (Vice)*, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
Missed: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2*, Isle of Dogs*, Ralph Breaks the Internet*, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse*, Mirai*
Alternates: Smallfoot, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation
Missed: Nothin'
Best Documentary
RBG*, Free Solo*, Won't You Be My Neighbor?, This Changes Everything, Fahrenheit 11/9
Alternates: Three Identical Strangers, Reversing Roe
Missed: Minding the Gap, Of Fathers and Sons, Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Best Foreign Language Film
Roma (Mexico)*, Shoplifters (Japan)*, Cold War (Poland)*, The Spy Gone North (South Korea), Dogman (Italy)
Missed: Capernaum (Lebanon), Never Look Away (Germany)
Best Cinematography
Roma*, At Eternity's Gate, If Beale Street Could Talk, First Man, Green Book
Alternates: A Star Is Born*, Vice
Missed: The Favourite, Never Look Away, Cold War
Best Production Design
Black Panther*, The Favourite*, Roma*, First Man*, A Star Is Born
Alternates: Mary Poppins Returns*, Isle of Dogs
Missed: Nothing
Best Costume Design
Mary Queen of Scots*, Mary Poppins Returns*, The Favourite*, Colette, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
Alternates: Bohemian Rhapsody, The Front Runner
Missed: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mary Queen of Scots*, Vice*, The Favourite
Alternates: Bohemian Rhapsody
Missed: Border
Best Film Editing
Vice*, Green Book*, A Star Is Born, Roma, If Beale Street Could Talk
Alternates: Widows, First Man
Missed: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite
Best Sound Editing
First Man*, A Quiet Place*, Black Panther*, Roma*, A Star Is Born
Alternates: Widows, Mission Impossible: Fallout
Missed: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Mixing
First Man*, Black Panther*, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Alternates: Roma*, The Favourite
Missed: Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star Is Born
Best Original Score
If Beale Street Could Talk*, Mary Poppins Returns*, First Man, Roma, The Favourite
Alternates: At Eternity's Gate, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Missed: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Isle of Dogs
Best Original Song
"Shallow" (A Star Is Born)*
Missed: "All the Stars" (Black Panther), "I'll Fight" (RBG), "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns), "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
Best Visual Effects
First Man*, Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns, Widows, Fantastic Beasts: Crimes of Grindelwald
Alternates: Avengers: Infinity War*, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Missed: Ready Player One, Christopher Robin, Solo: A Star Wars Story
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Star Is Born*, If Beale Street Could Talk*, BlacKkKlansman*, First Man, The Front Runner
Alternates: Can You Ever Forgive Me?*, Beautiful Boy
Missed: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite*, Roma*, Green Book*, Vice*, Eighth Grade
Alternates: First Reformed*, Private Life
Missed: None
UPDATED 1/23/19 4:34PM: Added accuracy percentages and changed the order of posts.
UPDATED 2/25/19 12:44PM: Added post-Oscars wins and percentages.