• Casey Seline

2019 Predictions Scoreboard

Updated: Feb 25, 2019

Last night's Oscars broadcast brought a solid mix of expected wins and surprises. Here's how my predictions stacked up from October, and from the day before the show. (My percentage is down from last year, unfortunately). Below that is my scoreboard for predicted nominees.

 

From "2019 Oscar Predictions," posted on October 23, 2018

Accuracy: 38%

Correct predictions: 8/21 (I left the three short categories out of this post)


The breakdown:

Best Picture

Predicted: Green Book

Actual: Green Book


Best Actor

Predicted: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)

Actual: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)


Best Actress

Predicted: Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)

Actual: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)


Best Supporting Actor

Predicted: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)

Actual: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)


Best Supporting Actress

Predicted: Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Actual: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)


Best Director

Predicted: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)

Actual: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)


Best Animated Feature

Predicted: Ralph Breaks the Internet

Actual: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse


Best Documentary

Predicted: Won't You Be My Neighbor?

Actual: Free Solo


Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted: Roma

Actual: Roma


Best Cinematography

Predicted: Roma

Actual: Roma


Best Production Design

Predicted: A Star Is Born

Actual: Black Panther


Best Costume Design

Predicted: Colette

Actual: Black Panther


Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted: Mary Queen of Scots

Actual: Vice


Best Film Editing

Predicted: Roma

Actual: Bohemian Rhapsody


Best Sound Editing

Predicted: First Man

Actual: Bohemian Rhapsody


Best Sound Mixing

Predicted: First Man

Actual: Bohemian Rhapsody


Best Original Score

Predicted: If Beale Street Could Talk

Actual: Black Panther


Best Original Song

Predicted: "Shallow" (A Star Is Born)

Actual: "Shallow" (A Star Is Born)


Best Visual Effects

Predicted: First Man

Actual: First Man


Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted: If Beale Street Could Talk

Actual: BlacKkKlansman


Best Original Screenplay

Predicted: The Favourite

Actual: Green Book

 

From "Final Oscar 2019 Predictions," posted on February 23, 2019

Accuracy: 67%

Correct predictions: 16/24


The breakdown:

Best Picture

Predicted: The Favourite

Actual: Green Book


Best Actor

Predicted: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)

Actual: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)


Best Actress

Predicted: Glenn Close (The Wife)

Actual: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)


Best Supporting Actor

Predicted: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)

Actual: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)


Best Supporting Actress

Predicted: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Actual: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)


Best Director

Predicted: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)

Actual: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)


Best Animated Feature

Predicted: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Actual: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse


Best Documentary

Predicted: Free Solo

Actual: Free Solo


Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted: Roma

Actual: Roma


Best Cinematography

Predicted: Roma

Actual: Roma


Best Production Design

Predicted: Black Panther

Actual: Black Panther


Best Costume Design

Predicted: Black Panther

Actual: Black Panther


Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted: Vice

Actual: Vice


Best Film Editing

Predicted: Vice

Actual: Bohemian Rhapsody


Best Sound Editing

Predicted: First Man

Actual: Bohemian Rhapsody


Best Sound Mixing

Predicted: First Man

Actual: Bohemian Rhapsody


Best Original Score

Predicted: BlacKkKlansman

Actual: Black Panther


Best Original Song

Predicted: "Shallow" (A Star Is Born)

Actual: "Shallow" (A Star Is Born)


Best Visual Effects

Predicted: First Man

Actual: First Man


Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted: BlacKkKlansman

Actual: BlacKkKlansman


Best Original Screenplay

Predicted: The Favourite

Actual: Green Book


Best Animated Short

Predicted: Bao

Actual: Bao


Best Documentary Short

Predicted: Black Sheep

Actual: Period. End of Sentence.


Best Live Action Short

Predicted: Skin

Actual: Skin

 

From January 23: I'll be updating this post when I have final Oscar predictions/when we know winners, but for now, here's how my predictions have stacked up. Asterisks indicate a correct prediction.

 

From "Last Minute Oscar Nom Projections," posted on January 21, 2019

Accuracy: 86.1%

Correct nominees: 89/122

Alternates who earned nominations: 16/43

Total misses: 15/122

Best Category: 3-way TIE between Best Animated Feature, Best Foreign Language Film, and Best Production Design (no misses, nothing off the alternates list)

Worst Category: Best Film Editing (2 correct nominees, 1 nominee from the alternates list, 2 misses)


The breakdown:

Best Picture

A Star Is Born*, Green Book*, The Favourite*, Black Panther*, Roma*, Vice*, Bohemian Rhapsody*, BlacKkKlansman*, If Beale Street Could Talk

Alternates: First Man, Eighth Grade

Missed: None


Best Actor

Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)*, Christian Bale (Vice)*, Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)*, Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)*, Ethan Hawke

Alternates: Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)*

Missed: None


Best Actress

Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)*, Glenn Close (The Wife)*, Olivia Colman (The Favourite)*, Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)*, Nicole Kidman (Destroyer)

Alternates: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)*, Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)

Missed: None


Best Supporting Actor

Sam Rockwell (Vice)*, Mahershala Ali (Green Book)*, Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)*, Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)*, Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)

Alternates: Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)*

Missed: None


Best Supporting Actress

Emma Stone (The Favourite)*, Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)*, Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)*, Amy Adams (Vice)*, Claire Foy (First Man)

Alternates: Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)

Missed: Marina de Tavira (Roma)


Best Director

Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)*, Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)*, Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)*, Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Alternates: Adam McKay (Vice)*, Peter Farrelly (Green Book)

Missed: Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)


Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2*, Isle of Dogs*, Ralph Breaks the Internet*, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse*, Mirai*

Alternates: The Grinch

Missed: None


Best Documentary

RBG*, Free Solo*, Minding the Gap*, Three Identical Strangers, Won't You Be My Neighbor?

Alternates: Hale County This Morning, This Evening*, Shirkers

Missed: Of Fathers and Sons


Best Foreign Language Film

Roma (Mexico)*, Shoplifters (Japan)*, Cold War (Poland)*, Capernaum (Lebanon)*, Never Look Away (Germany)*

Alternates: Border (Sweden), Burning (South Korea)

Missed: None


Best Cinematography

Roma*, Cold War*, The Favourite*, If Beale Street Could Talk, First Man

Alternates: A Star Is Born*, At Eternity's Gate

Missed: Never Look Away


Best Production Design

Black Panther*, The Favourite*, Roma*, First Man*, Mary Poppins Returns*

Alternates: A Star Is Born, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Missed: None


Best Costume Design

Mary Queen of Scots*, Mary Poppins Returns*, The Favourite*, Black Panther*, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Alternates: If Beale Street Could Talk

Missed: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs


Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Mary Queen of Scots*, Vice*, Bohemian Rhapsody

Alternates: Stan & Ollie, The Favourite

Missed: Border


Best Film Editing

Vice*, Green Book*, A Star Is Born, Roma, First Man

Alternates: Bohemian Rhapsody*, Mission Impossible: Fallout

Missed: BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite


Best Sound Editing

First Man*, A Quiet Place*, Black Panther*, A Star Is Born, Mission Impossible: Fallout

Alternates: Roma*, Bohemian Rhapsody*, Ready Player One

Missed: None


Best Sound Mixing

First Man*, Bohemian Rhapsody* Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Mission Impossible: Fallout

Alternates: Roma*, Black Panther*

Missed: A Star Is Born


Best Original Score

If Beale Street Could Talk*, Mary Poppins Returns*, Isle of Dogs*, Black Panther*, First Man

Alternates: BlacKkKlansman*, A Quiet Place

Missed: None


Best Original Song

"Shallow" (A Star Is Born)*, "All the Stars" (Black Panther)*, "I'll Fight" (RBG)*, "Girl in the Movies" (Dumplin'), "Trip A Little Light Fantastic" (Mary Poppins Returns)

Alternates: "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns)*, "Revelation" (Boy Erased)

Missed: "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)


Best Visual Effects

First Man*, Avengers: Infinity War*, Ready Player One*, Solo: A Star Wars Story*, Mary Poppins Returns

Alternates: Black Panther

Missed: Christopher Robin


Best Adapted Screenplay

A Star Is Born*, If Beale Street Could Talk*, BlacKkKlansman*, Can You Ever Forgive Me?*, Black Panther

Alternates: First Man, Leave No Trace

Missed: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs


Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite*, Roma*, Green Book*, Vice*, Eighth Grade

Alternates: First Reformed*, A Quiet Place

Missed: None


Best Animated Short

Bao*, Weekends*, Animal Behaviour*, Bilby, Lost & Found

Alternates: One Small Step*, Age of Sail

Missed: Late Afternoon


Best Documentary Short

End Game*, Black Sheep*, Period. End of Sentence.*, Zion, Women of the Gulag

Alternates: My Dead Dad's Porno Tapes, '63 Boycott

Missed: Lifeboat, A Night at the Garden


Best Live Action Short

Detainment*, Marguerite*, Skin*, Icare, Caroline

Alternates: Favue*, Wale

Missed: Mother

 

From "2019 Oscar Predictions," posted on October 23, 2018

Accuracy: 64.8%

Correct nominees: 61/108

Alternates who earned nominations: 9/38

Total misses: 36/108

Best Category: Best Animated Feature (no misses, nothing off the alternates list)

Worst Category: TIE between Best Cinematography and Best Visual Effects (one correct nominee, one nominee from the alternate list)


The breakdown:

Best Picture

A Star Is Born*, Green Book*, The Favourite*, Black Panther*, Roma*, Vice*, If Beale Street Could Talk, On the Basis of Sex, The Front Runner, First Man

Alternates: Mary Queen of Scots, Boy Erased

Missed: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody


Best Actor

Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)*, Christian Bale (Vice)*, Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)*, Ryan Gosling (First Man), Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)

Alternates: Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)*, Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun)

Missed: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)


Best Actress

Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)*, Glenn Close (The Wife)*, Olivia Colman (The Favourite)*, Yalitz Aparicio (Roma)*, KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Alternates: Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex), Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)

Missed: Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)


Best Supporting Actor

Sam Rockwell (Vice)*, Mahershala Ali (Green Book)*, Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)*, Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)*, Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)

Alternates: J.K. Simmons (The Front Runner), Steve Carell (Vice)

Missed: Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)


Best Supporting Actress

Emma Stone (The Favourite)*, Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)*, Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)*, Claire Foy (First Man), Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)

Alternates: Amy Adams (Vice)*, Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)

Missed: Marina de Tavira (Roma)


Best Director

Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)*, Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)*, Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Damien Chazelle (First Man), Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Alternates: Adam McKay (Vice)*, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)

Missed: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)


Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2*, Isle of Dogs*, Ralph Breaks the Internet*, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse*, Mirai*

Alternates: Smallfoot, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Missed: Nothin'


Best Documentary

RBG*, Free Solo*, Won't You Be My Neighbor?, This Changes Everything, Fahrenheit 11/9

Alternates: Three Identical Strangers, Reversing Roe

Missed: Minding the Gap, Of Fathers and Sons, Hale County This Morning, This Evening


Best Foreign Language Film

Roma (Mexico)*, Shoplifters (Japan)*, Cold War (Poland)*, The Spy Gone North (South Korea), Dogman (Italy)

Missed: Capernaum (Lebanon), Never Look Away (Germany)


Best Cinematography

Roma*, At Eternity's Gate, If Beale Street Could Talk, First Man, Green Book

Alternates: A Star Is Born*, Vice

Missed: The Favourite, Never Look Away, Cold War


Best Production Design

Black Panther*, The Favourite*, Roma*, First Man*, A Star Is Born

Alternates: Mary Poppins Returns*, Isle of Dogs

Missed: Nothing


Best Costume Design

Mary Queen of Scots*, Mary Poppins Returns*, The Favourite*, Colette, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Alternates: Bohemian Rhapsody, The Front Runner

Missed: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther


Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Mary Queen of Scots*, Vice*, The Favourite

Alternates: Bohemian Rhapsody

Missed: Border


Best Film Editing

Vice*, Green Book*, A Star Is Born, Roma, If Beale Street Could Talk

Alternates: Widows, First Man

Missed: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite


Best Sound Editing

First Man*, A Quiet Place*, Black Panther*, Roma*, A Star Is Born

Alternates: Widows, Mission Impossible: Fallout

Missed: Bohemian Rhapsody


Best Sound Mixing

First Man*, Black Panther*, Mary Poppins Returns, A Quiet Place, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Alternates: Roma*, The Favourite

Missed: Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star Is Born


Best Original Score

If Beale Street Could Talk*, Mary Poppins Returns*, First Man, Roma, The Favourite

Alternates: At Eternity's Gate, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Missed: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Isle of Dogs


Best Original Song

"Shallow" (A Star Is Born)*

Missed: "All the Stars" (Black Panther), "I'll Fight" (RBG), "The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns), "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)


Best Visual Effects

First Man*, Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns, Widows, Fantastic Beasts: Crimes of Grindelwald

Alternates: Avengers: Infinity War*, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Missed: Ready Player One, Christopher Robin, Solo: A Star Wars Story


Best Adapted Screenplay

A Star Is Born*, If Beale Street Could Talk*, BlacKkKlansman*, First Man, The Front Runner

Alternates: Can You Ever Forgive Me?*, Beautiful Boy

Missed: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs


Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite*, Roma*, Green Book*, Vice*, Eighth Grade

Alternates: First Reformed*, Private Life

Missed: None


UPDATED 1/23/19 4:34PM: Added accuracy percentages and changed the order of posts.

UPDATED 2/25/19 12:44PM: Added post-Oscars wins and percentages.